LETTERS
TO THE EDITOR: Bank of Japan, at ECB's mercy, is chasing its own tail
Financial Times, May 2, 2000,
From Mr
Blair Baker.
Sir, I
agree wholeheartedly with Gillian Tett's comments regarding Bank of
Japan's Brobdingnagian task in terminating its near-zero per cent
interest rate policy ("Public relations battle ahead for central
bank", April 26). Might I go one step further and suggest that the
BoJ retain the services of that noted Frankfurt public relations firm,
Duisenberg, Eichel, Welteke, Noyer, and Associates to devise their
game-plan?
The
recent remarks by Masaru Hayami, governor of the BoJ, concerning the
inevitable monetary tightening amount to well-scripted trial balloons
floated to gauge the markets' reactions - the "public relations and
market management" Ms Tett describes. Mr Hayami's words
precipitated a short-lived appreciation of the yen, invariably a boon to
the Ministry of Finance and BoJ policy makers who must prevent
volatility ahead of the election and the Okinawa G7 summit.
In an
ideal scenario, the government and central bank would see eye-to-eye on
all policy fronts; Bank of Japan would epitomise central bank
transparency; and one cohesive voice would delineate monetary policy to
the Tokyo markets. This is not going to happen, and even were it
possible, shortcomings in the euro-zone would continue to complicate
matters.
Consider
the facts: the euro has depreciated more than 20 per cent and 28 per
cent vis a` vis the dollar and yen respectively. The euro-zone is a
major exporter of capital, much to the delight of US equity markets and
beneficiaries of direct foreign investment. A chorus of financial and
monetary officials in the euro-zone has verbally intervened to support
the single currency, perhaps in concert with European Central Bank's
"benign neglect" policy.
Japanese
life insurers and financial institutions, major holders of
euro-denominated securities, continue to liquidate these assets to stop
the bloodbath, creating fresh incentive for yen bulls to stampede.
Market psychology en masse will continue to ignore the positive economic
data in the euro-zone. Pundits suggest that a massive euro-buying
intervention could be fruitless and set the single currency back more.
ECB officials can jawbone about internal price stability until they are
blue in the face - but why perpetuate the public relations disaster that
is their external euro policy?
The
BoJ's hands are tied. Resilient US share prices continue to plague the
single currency which in turn keeps the prospect of yen volatility very
much alive. Kiichi Miyazawa, the finance minister, thinks he had
headaches before the G7, compliments of the central bank? Mr Hayami is
powerless, and at the mercy of ECB's policy gone wrong. Ever see a
central bank chase its tail?
Blair
Baker, Foreign Exchange Strategist, Global Capital Investment, LLC, 67
Wall Street, Suite 2211, New York, NY 10005, US
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